What could be the long-term impacts of Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian military sites?

 The Overlooked Aftermath of Ukraine's June 2nd Drone Attack: The Destruction of Beriev A-50 AWACS Aircraft

Perhaps the most under-rated consequence of Ukraine's massively successful drone attack on June 2nd is that the country destroyed some of Russia's airborne early warning capabilities in the process—namely, by attacking two Beriev A-50 aircraft.

The A-50 is Russia's version of an AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) plane, required for coordinating safe and effective air operations within an environment dominated by advanced surface-to-air missile systems. The planes are extremely advanced, extremely costly, and only in very small quantities—worldwide. The United States alone has a large fleet, yet even NATO's European members collectively depend on a pooled share of approximately a dozen American-built AWACS planes to support their own modest quantities.

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia was only said to have six working Beriev A-50s. Ukraine had already shot down two, and with two now destroyed in this latest attack, Russia might be left with no more than two operational A-50s. It is a costly loss—these planes are not replaceable in the near future. The final A-50 was constructed in 1992, and Russia has no current production line for them. Resuming production would require significant financial investment and would probably take a few years.

Strategically, losing half of their AWACS fleet arguably strikes a more devastating blow to Russian military capability than even the loss of 10% of their bomber fleet, or temporary impairment of another 20%. Russia is still able to launch bombing raids and have a minimal nuclear deterrent left with the rest of their bombers, but the absence of adequate airborne surveillance severely handicaps their ability to engage in sophisticated air operations.

To get a sense of the value of AWACS platforms: one American aircraft carrier usually has four or five E-2D Hawkeye AEW&C planes. That's how critical airborne early warning is to contemporary airpower. Russia being down to two for an entire theatre of war—and its enormous homeland—amounts to a strategic weakness that can have long-term consequences.